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Flharfh's avatar

The effects of the Floyd riots and the racialized "defund the police" narrative have only begun to be felt.

If you're an intelligent, competent cop, or police candidate, you have options regarding where to work. Why on earth would you work in a major metro area? Not only is it more dangerous and stressful - If you make a mistake, you're far more likely to be prosecuted and imprisoned. Plus, in some major cities, the people you're sworn to protect will actually hate your guts and want you gone.

The good cops will retire if they can, or they'll leave for the suburbs or rural areas. Big city PDs will either have to significantly raise their wages or lower their standards (or both). Lowering standards will lead to more deaths.

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

Free states are putting up billboards to recruit cops out of hell holes. From what I understand, they have been quite successful.

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Douglas Marolla's avatar

My cop friends take their sweet time heading to anything remotely live and violent. They use a more circuitous route, are extra careful in traffic, and get there when it's all over. No one wants to be the next hated figure. This is not hearsay.

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Diamond Boy's avatar

I don’t blame them.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

So it’s when you need cops in seconds, cops are now hours away.

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

If you want to find an indicator for how safe people feel, just take a look at the upward trajectory for firearm sales. Ammunition continues to be scarce and expensive. Manufacturers are two years behind the demand. Anecdotally, I haven't owned a gun in 20 years. I have bought two of them in 2021.

2020 broke the record for sales with an estimated 21.1 million guns sold in the US. That broke the previous record in 2016 by 34%. 40% of new gun sales were for individuals that had never owned a gun before. This also includes a rise in gun sales to hispanic and black Americans.

The FBI processed nearly 40 million background checks for firearms in 2020 but not all of those correlate with the sale of a gun. There were three distinct spikes in sales starting with the pandemic and then rising again during the protests and culminating around the election.

There is no question that buyers were responding to the riots and uncertainty around policing during the second wave. The escalating crime wave in many cities will almost certainly contribute to a high sales rate throughout 2021.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

“This also includes a rise in gun sales to hispanic and black Americans.”

This can’t be true. Democrats told me blacks and brown don’t have an id and are incapable of getting them.

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Matt330's avatar

Just remember the approved message from our betters was that people were clearing gun store shelves because of "economic uncertainty related to Covid-19."

On a side note, will we ever get back to the point where finding and purchasing .308 Winchester is not tedious or painful?

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

LOL. I didn't buy a. 45 and.a 5.56 with a couple thousand rounds because of COVID. I will also be getting a concealed carry permit. That said, there was definitely a spike around COVID but an equally large spike starting in June of last year.

As for buying a. 308, in the last few months, I have seen shelves that were barren and completely stocked. It seems to be improving. I even saw ammo on the shelves recently. I was shocked.

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Nicolas Léonard's avatar

Maybe I am blasé but I think I have seen headlines about record firearms sales pretty much every single year for the past 25 years. Is this one more meaningful than others?

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Mitch Barrie's avatar

Absolutely. I am in the industry and we are having our best years since 2013. We would have done even better if Remington's Ilion NY factory hadn't been shut down by Cuomo (and Remington's subsequent bankruptcy - not necessarily related, but maybe a little bit).

According to the NSSF (the actual "gun industry lobby" -- you never hear about them because they are quite powerless), there were some 3 million to 4 million new gun owners in 2020. I believe it because I seemed to get half of them on the phone last year (I take genuine pleasure in getting new gun owners up to speed on their firearms).

We all have our favorite anecdotes. Most of my colleagues are Hispanic and last year many of their friends and family members in places like Los Angeles were begging them to get them guns (because apparently you can't just scoop Glocks up out of the gutters as the media would imply): no can do. Even if they had guns to spare (maybe they do, maybe they don't), because of California's handgun roster and "assault weapon" ban, a lot of the firearms we have here in Nevada cannot be legally imported into California.

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Jeff's avatar

I feel that pain. I've been waiting for Remington to start shipping shotguns for a year. I'm just about ready to go with Mossberg since I'm finally seeing them in stock. A LOT more firearms would have sold if stores could keep them stocked.

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Mitch Barrie's avatar

For most of the last 20 years the primary platform for my company's production has been the Remington 870. Since last year, it is now . . . the Benelli M4, which these days is usually a $2,000 shotgun. There have been a lot of Benelli M4s sold in the last year, presumably paid for partially by US government stimulus checks.

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Jeff's avatar

I'd prefer the 870 with an 18" barrel. Benelli's are fine arms, but out of my price range. For most of the last year all I've seen is expensive shotguns like the Benelli, and cheap imports from Turkey, etc. Some of those are probably okay, but I want a home defense gun that I can rely on working every time.

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Matt330's avatar

It absolutely is. Rural Americans are always buying a lot of guns. What made this different is that it was middle and upper middle class suburbanites cleaning out gun stores. Most of them were first time gun buyers and they are from a group that tends to reliably vote for more gun control. In other words, something had them spooked.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

Anecdotal but I have at least 3 very liberal friends who became first time gun owners last year during the protests. Another friend finally realized that he had been lied to because it took close to 3 months for his permit to come in in new jersey. The very gun control laws all of them had voted for had caused significant delays when they finally needed the guns. All 4 of them have learned their lessons.

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

It is literally the highest sales on record. 2021 is shaping up to be the second highest so far.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

Proud.

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Nicolas Léonard's avatar

Will the murder spree recede in 2021?

One reason I am not optimistic is that I have seen several articles noting that several large US cities see a wave of policemen quitting or retiring early.

- NYPD experiences 75 percent increase in departures and retirements

- In Seattle, Police Chief Adrian Diaz announced a “staffing crisis” at his department

- In Minneapolis since the death of George Floyd the police department has lost nearly 300 officers from attrition, disability leave and retirements

- Portland has seen what local news outlet Oregon Live described as “one of the biggest waves of departures in recent memory”

- The police department in Louisville, KY has seen a more than 20% decrease in the size of its police force

- The Louisville Metro Police Department has already seen 43 departures this year, leaving the agency in “dire straits"

and after 2020 I don't exactly blame them. Media, and very many politicians blame them for whatever bad outcome follows criminals resisting arrest. Why bother patrolling the difficult neighbourhoods? Stick to the donut shop.

Police departments are bleeding many of their more experienced officers. Recruitment is reported as very difficult. We can expect PD to lower their standards to replenish their ranks. So it will be up to unexperienced, and possibly not as qualified policemen to face an unprecedented wave of homicides and violent crime. That does not exactly bode well for 2021.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

When good people get vilified and they quit, those positions get taken by the bad people.

Maybe that’s the actual goal all along.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

The riots which happened specifically after the Rayshard Brooks shooting clearly showed that most people were not interested in any objective facts and just wanted to burn and loot. Any person can watch the full 40 minute video from 2 different body cams and clearly see those two cops were very respectful and did exactly what good cops should look up to but the mob wasn’t interested in looking and waiting for evidence. Then the corrupt DA went on to charge the cops with obviously politically motivated charges because his election was coming up.

Why would any good person get into law enforcement after seeing this?

And since no good person will get into it, what type of bad apples will end up replacing and taking over these jobs?

The obviously biased Soviet show trial of Chauvin was another example. I am not even a fan of Chauvin but every person deserves a fair trial - especially when they are hated the most. He didn’t get it either.

We live in a time of hysterical mindless lynch mobs facilitated by corrupt corporate media.

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Matt330's avatar

Lucky for me, things are still normal in Middle America. Hmm, it is almost like this wave of violent crime is only in certain cities in certain parts of the country.

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

Being in fly over country would be like paradise.

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Matt330's avatar

I am not in fly over country! Where I live at least has good scenery. It is strange how little of the things that make national news have affected us. As far as I know, there were no incidents of rioting near me. We had some protests, but they were actually peaceful. There were a couple of arrests in Colorado Springs from people blocking the highway. Funny thing, the police did not arrest them when they are making a scene, they just waited until later when the idiots posted selfies of themselves engaged in illegal activity on their social media pages. Who needs informants or competent detectives when you are dealing with Facebook addicted, idiotic narcissists?

It really is strange how much of a different world we live in. I have not seen any changes to local law enforcement agencies or sheriff departments. The county I live in has one of the highest rates of guns per capita in the entire United States, but violence is very rare. It is also why rural people hate gun control. Not to mention, home invasions and armed robbery are rare for a reason. Back to law enforcement, our agencies have just going about their daily business, and they really do not care if you are committing a crime against other people in the name of some great social cause. The one thing that has made the neighborhood and the whole state go to hell is immigration. No, I am not talking about the illegal kind. Seriously, if we could replace rich white Californians with hard working illegals, we would. At least they do not build mansions where it ruins your mountain view and try to force the same policies that caused them to move in the first place on to your state.

America’s inner cities are a whole different world to us. Hell, sometimes you have to clarify if BLM means (Bureau of Land Management) or (Black Lives Matter) around here. The simple truth is rural white America and urban black America have little effect on each other and even less interaction. I also get irritated when some opportunistic politician tries to put the blame on us whenever some racial incident happens in a costal city. We do not vote in your politics. Those are local matters. I realize this has been a bit long, but I thought you might want to know the perspective from another part of the country.

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Mitigated Disaster's avatar

If you are in or around Colorado Springs, then you aren't far from me but Denver metro is now deep blue. I keep waiting for everywhere outside of Denver and Boulder to secede into surrounding states.

Whenever I visit my parents in Fruita, I am reminded of just how nice it is to live in this country. Everything is quiet and just a little slower. Folks are more concerned with watering their fields or the upcoming peach harvest. Every time I drive by a BLM sign outside of Fruita, I can't help but laugh to myself. Totally different world.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

America has $450 million firearms and 99.9% of them are owned by lawful owners. Places like Chicago want to blame guns ignoring the fact that they have the strictest gun controls and the surrounding states don’t have the shooting and hand violence problem like Chicago does. It’s like they want to put blame of their own socioeconomic problems on guns instead.

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memento mori's avatar

I am living temporarily in Chicago this summer....on the north side, but still in the city. It couldn't be more peaceful or feel more safe (and I mean that as someone who has lived in several cities and in the rural areas). From my trendy uptown apartment, I see no evil. Therefore, the increase in homicides is a false narrative spewed by the right with an agenda.

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Jeff's avatar

This is a big part of the problem. The violence is in places almost no one in the media, or their left wing allies, go. Out of sight, out of mind. Nothing to see here.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

Fully auto eh. Those aren’t even legal without a ton of extra licensing and paperwork. Time to make them “extra extra illegal”. That will solve it.

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Douglas Marolla's avatar

http://heyjackass.com/

Top site for CHI antics.

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Nicolas Léonard's avatar

From the distance of a safe city, the body count of an ordinary summer week-end in Chicago is grotesque:

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/06/28/at-least-2-killed-27-wounded-in-weekend-shootings-in-chicago-06-25-21/

It's just beyond my comprehension. Even in trigger-happy societies like Afghanistan, aren't there tribe elders who enforce order and some rules? Even in the organized crime underworld, outside of periodic toss ups, don't things settle down as Maffia bosses carve territories?

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

I follow that site often because of the humour in their posts.

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Substack Reader's avatar

One YouTube comment called it a "mostly peaceful midday ambush."

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Emily's avatar

Looking forward to the honor of chipping in a bit again for an important trek!

What you did last year was so important, incredible, and only you were doing it(!!!) Thanks again for having allowed us the opportunity to be part of that. Had no idea it would turn out to be so important and revelatory.

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Jeff's avatar

It so interesting how some on the left want to downplay the increase in homicide rates. Every damned thing comes down to ideological/political spin. Just in the last couple days we've had AOC again advocating defunding the police. These leftists profess to care about people of color. Yet inner city black and brown people are the primary murder victims. Its anecdotal, but every time I see an interview of ordinary black people in the cities they say they want more police, not less. Most of the defund the police brigade do not have to live with the consequences of their "do good" leftism.

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Nicolas Léonard's avatar

I am from from Montreal, and it is absolutely nothing like Baltimore. Its homicide rate (per 100 000) was 1.05 in 2019, low even for Canada (Toronto: 2.03, [2019] US: 4.96 [2018], Chicago 24.13 [2017]). Unlike in the US, homicides were unchanged in 2020.

And yet there are unmistakable signs that we have started to develop gang culture neighbourhoods and to move along the social decay spiral that leads to Chicago.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/two-shootings-reported-sunday-evening-in-montreal-north

Montreal is lagging behind Toronto that is starting to see Chicago-worthy headlines:

https://torontosun.com/news/crime/birthday-horror-police-leaders-seek-answers-after-bullets-fly-at-tots-party

All it takes is one police shooting of a black criminal and we'd be set for race riots.

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

That is impossible, I thought banning guns and gun control in Canada was supposed to prevent shootings. Was cnn wrong? Impossible.

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Masodark's avatar

Ooooh coming to Philly are ya?

Make sure you get yourself a cheesesteak and some "wudder" jawn.

On top of the surging murder and gun violence rates, we also have gangs of "Mad Max" style ATV and motorcycle gangs overtaking areas of the city at will. The police are forbidden from chasing them(not that they are going to do anything right now anyway) but supposedly city council passed laws to allow them to confiscate them and destroy these vehicles.

There was a effort about 2 weeks ago and they gathered up a ton to destroy, but this only forced the gangs out of the city briefly where they drove all around the 'burbs in protest.

Additionally, I have heard anecdotal tales of 911 not taking calls, not being helpful, or just hanging up on people.

And this summer, as with every summer we have roving gangs of what are euphemistically referred to as "teens" gathering in predetermined places on social media and then running wild, destroying property and harassing citizens.

Have fun! I look forward to reading what you write about it.

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Douglas Marolla's avatar

"Jawn" ... hahahaha that Philly talk gets me every time.

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Douglas Marolla's avatar

I'm in the bad neighborhood high school - been teaching there for 20 years. We had two empty seats with pictures of students who should have walked the stage and graduated. Both were cut down by bullets in the neighborhood.

Our version of the disconnect you speak of in this article: our guest speaker told our student grads that they shouldn't 'ask' for equity or equality ... those days are over. They should 'demand' equity and equality.

From whom they should demand these things was left unsaid. She was also silent on where these things should happen. My community is bereft of any 'R' leadership or YT leadership. Nonetheless, that was the message to grads.

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Wazoomann's avatar

It's highly unfashionable to discuss the daily homicides and the facts. Narrative must be followed...or else.

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DECQuine's avatar

A funny thing happens when you mention homicide rates. People wanna kill ya, for some reason...

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CNNisFakeNews's avatar

First they created the problems with non stop rioting and bullshit “defund the police” narrative. Then once the violence exploded, they blame the very problem they created on “scary looking guns” and “white supremacy” “domestic terrorism” which gets used by democrats for gun control and expansion of the spying and thought police state.

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Jonathan's avatar

Anti-trans and anti-Asian violence are epidemics and national emergencies, but dramatic spikes in homicide overall? Stop being hysterical.

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Always Adblock's avatar

When I was a liberal I used to point out that the 'perception' of crime rising almost always came with the proviso that people thought it was rising elsewhere, not in their immediate neighborhood. The same is true today. (The kind of people targeted in surveys generally don't live in burnt-out husks of neighborhoods.)

But while back then I took this as evidence that crime was not rising, now - in conjunction with the clear and unambiguous data - I take it as evidence that crime is rising in the bad part of town, and that for this reason it is remiss to pretend it's not happening anywhere. Out of sight, out of mind is a helluva drug.

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