Did you know that perceptions of rising homicide rates in the United States are actually just “inorganic” conconctions of contrarian media figures, who for some reason have decided to get together and deliberately sow panic — brainwashing ordinary citizens into a depraved false consciousness? Yes, that’s right: the same media establishment which was virtually united last year in unwavering support of a protest movement that rejected the very foundational premises of American policing has now supposedly done a 180, and is all of the sudden obsessed with amplifying cop-friendly “surging crime” narratives. So, you’ve fallen for “
The effects of the Floyd riots and the racialized "defund the police" narrative have only begun to be felt.
If you're an intelligent, competent cop, or police candidate, you have options regarding where to work. Why on earth would you work in a major metro area? Not only is it more dangerous and stressful - If you make a mistake, you're far more likely to be prosecuted and imprisoned. Plus, in some major cities, the people you're sworn to protect will actually hate your guts and want you gone.
The good cops will retire if they can, or they'll leave for the suburbs or rural areas. Big city PDs will either have to significantly raise their wages or lower their standards (or both). Lowering standards will lead to more deaths.
If you want to find an indicator for how safe people feel, just take a look at the upward trajectory for firearm sales. Ammunition continues to be scarce and expensive. Manufacturers are two years behind the demand. Anecdotally, I haven't owned a gun in 20 years. I have bought two of them in 2021.
2020 broke the record for sales with an estimated 21.1 million guns sold in the US. That broke the previous record in 2016 by 34%. 40% of new gun sales were for individuals that had never owned a gun before. This also includes a rise in gun sales to hispanic and black Americans.
The FBI processed nearly 40 million background checks for firearms in 2020 but not all of those correlate with the sale of a gun. There were three distinct spikes in sales starting with the pandemic and then rising again during the protests and culminating around the election.
There is no question that buyers were responding to the riots and uncertainty around policing during the second wave. The escalating crime wave in many cities will almost certainly contribute to a high sales rate throughout 2021.
One reason I am not optimistic is that I have seen several articles noting that several large US cities see a wave of policemen quitting or retiring early.
- NYPD experiences 75 percent increase in departures and retirements
- In Seattle, Police Chief Adrian Diaz announced a “staffing crisis” at his department
- In Minneapolis since the death of George Floyd the police department has lost nearly 300 officers from attrition, disability leave and retirements
- Portland has seen what local news outlet Oregon Live described as “one of the biggest waves of departures in recent memory”
- The police department in Louisville, KY has seen a more than 20% decrease in the size of its police force
- The Louisville Metro Police Department has already seen 43 departures this year, leaving the agency in “dire straits"
and after 2020 I don't exactly blame them. Media, and very many politicians blame them for whatever bad outcome follows criminals resisting arrest. Why bother patrolling the difficult neighbourhoods? Stick to the donut shop.
Police departments are bleeding many of their more experienced officers. Recruitment is reported as very difficult. We can expect PD to lower their standards to replenish their ranks. So it will be up to unexperienced, and possibly not as qualified policemen to face an unprecedented wave of homicides and violent crime. That does not exactly bode well for 2021.
"homicide rates increased 30% in 2020, a large and troubling increase that has no modern precedent."
Its just temporary. The police were defunded and the differently abled social worker replacements were delayed. Mandatory apology training takes longer and is more intensive than the the firearms training it replaced.
The riots which happened specifically after the Rayshard Brooks shooting clearly showed that most people were not interested in any objective facts and just wanted to burn and loot. Any person can watch the full 40 minute video from 2 different body cams and clearly see those two cops were very respectful and did exactly what good cops should look up to but the mob wasn’t interested in looking and waiting for evidence. Then the corrupt DA went on to charge the cops with obviously politically motivated charges because his election was coming up.
Why would any good person get into law enforcement after seeing this?
And since no good person will get into it, what type of bad apples will end up replacing and taking over these jobs?
The obviously biased Soviet show trial of Chauvin was another example. I am not even a fan of Chauvin but every person deserves a fair trial - especially when they are hated the most. He didn’t get it either.
We live in a time of hysterical mindless lynch mobs facilitated by corrupt corporate media.
Lucky for me, things are still normal in Middle America. Hmm, it is almost like this wave of violent crime is only in certain cities in certain parts of the country.
I am living temporarily in Chicago this summer....on the north side, but still in the city. It couldn't be more peaceful or feel more safe (and I mean that as someone who has lived in several cities and in the rural areas). From my trendy uptown apartment, I see no evil. Therefore, the increase in homicides is a false narrative spewed by the right with an agenda.
Looking forward to the honor of chipping in a bit again for an important trek!
What you did last year was so important, incredible, and only you were doing it(!!!) Thanks again for having allowed us the opportunity to be part of that. Had no idea it would turn out to be so important and revelatory.
It so interesting how some on the left want to downplay the increase in homicide rates. Every damned thing comes down to ideological/political spin. Just in the last couple days we've had AOC again advocating defunding the police. These leftists profess to care about people of color. Yet inner city black and brown people are the primary murder victims. Its anecdotal, but every time I see an interview of ordinary black people in the cities they say they want more police, not less. Most of the defund the police brigade do not have to live with the consequences of their "do good" leftism.
I am from from Montreal, and it is absolutely nothing like Baltimore. Its homicide rate (per 100 000) was 1.05 in 2019, low even for Canada (Toronto: 2.03, [2019] US: 4.96 [2018], Chicago 24.13 [2017]). Unlike in the US, homicides were unchanged in 2020.
And yet there are unmistakable signs that we have started to develop gang culture neighbourhoods and to move along the social decay spiral that leads to Chicago.
Make sure you get yourself a cheesesteak and some "wudder" jawn.
On top of the surging murder and gun violence rates, we also have gangs of "Mad Max" style ATV and motorcycle gangs overtaking areas of the city at will. The police are forbidden from chasing them(not that they are going to do anything right now anyway) but supposedly city council passed laws to allow them to confiscate them and destroy these vehicles.
There was a effort about 2 weeks ago and they gathered up a ton to destroy, but this only forced the gangs out of the city briefly where they drove all around the 'burbs in protest.
Additionally, I have heard anecdotal tales of 911 not taking calls, not being helpful, or just hanging up on people.
And this summer, as with every summer we have roving gangs of what are euphemistically referred to as "teens" gathering in predetermined places on social media and then running wild, destroying property and harassing citizens.
Have fun! I look forward to reading what you write about it.
I'm in the bad neighborhood high school - been teaching there for 20 years. We had two empty seats with pictures of students who should have walked the stage and graduated. Both were cut down by bullets in the neighborhood.
Our version of the disconnect you speak of in this article: our guest speaker told our student grads that they shouldn't 'ask' for equity or equality ... those days are over. They should 'demand' equity and equality.
From whom they should demand these things was left unsaid. She was also silent on where these things should happen. My community is bereft of any 'R' leadership or YT leadership. Nonetheless, that was the message to grads.
First they created the problems with non stop rioting and bullshit “defund the police” narrative. Then once the violence exploded, they blame the very problem they created on “scary looking guns” and “white supremacy” “domestic terrorism” which gets used by democrats for gun control and expansion of the spying and thought police state.
The effects of the Floyd riots and the racialized "defund the police" narrative have only begun to be felt.
If you're an intelligent, competent cop, or police candidate, you have options regarding where to work. Why on earth would you work in a major metro area? Not only is it more dangerous and stressful - If you make a mistake, you're far more likely to be prosecuted and imprisoned. Plus, in some major cities, the people you're sworn to protect will actually hate your guts and want you gone.
The good cops will retire if they can, or they'll leave for the suburbs or rural areas. Big city PDs will either have to significantly raise their wages or lower their standards (or both). Lowering standards will lead to more deaths.
If you want to find an indicator for how safe people feel, just take a look at the upward trajectory for firearm sales. Ammunition continues to be scarce and expensive. Manufacturers are two years behind the demand. Anecdotally, I haven't owned a gun in 20 years. I have bought two of them in 2021.
2020 broke the record for sales with an estimated 21.1 million guns sold in the US. That broke the previous record in 2016 by 34%. 40% of new gun sales were for individuals that had never owned a gun before. This also includes a rise in gun sales to hispanic and black Americans.
The FBI processed nearly 40 million background checks for firearms in 2020 but not all of those correlate with the sale of a gun. There were three distinct spikes in sales starting with the pandemic and then rising again during the protests and culminating around the election.
There is no question that buyers were responding to the riots and uncertainty around policing during the second wave. The escalating crime wave in many cities will almost certainly contribute to a high sales rate throughout 2021.
Will the murder spree recede in 2021?
One reason I am not optimistic is that I have seen several articles noting that several large US cities see a wave of policemen quitting or retiring early.
- NYPD experiences 75 percent increase in departures and retirements
- In Seattle, Police Chief Adrian Diaz announced a “staffing crisis” at his department
- In Minneapolis since the death of George Floyd the police department has lost nearly 300 officers from attrition, disability leave and retirements
- Portland has seen what local news outlet Oregon Live described as “one of the biggest waves of departures in recent memory”
- The police department in Louisville, KY has seen a more than 20% decrease in the size of its police force
- The Louisville Metro Police Department has already seen 43 departures this year, leaving the agency in “dire straits"
and after 2020 I don't exactly blame them. Media, and very many politicians blame them for whatever bad outcome follows criminals resisting arrest. Why bother patrolling the difficult neighbourhoods? Stick to the donut shop.
Police departments are bleeding many of their more experienced officers. Recruitment is reported as very difficult. We can expect PD to lower their standards to replenish their ranks. So it will be up to unexperienced, and possibly not as qualified policemen to face an unprecedented wave of homicides and violent crime. That does not exactly bode well for 2021.
"homicide rates increased 30% in 2020, a large and troubling increase that has no modern precedent."
Its just temporary. The police were defunded and the differently abled social worker replacements were delayed. Mandatory apology training takes longer and is more intensive than the the firearms training it replaced.
The riots which happened specifically after the Rayshard Brooks shooting clearly showed that most people were not interested in any objective facts and just wanted to burn and loot. Any person can watch the full 40 minute video from 2 different body cams and clearly see those two cops were very respectful and did exactly what good cops should look up to but the mob wasn’t interested in looking and waiting for evidence. Then the corrupt DA went on to charge the cops with obviously politically motivated charges because his election was coming up.
Why would any good person get into law enforcement after seeing this?
And since no good person will get into it, what type of bad apples will end up replacing and taking over these jobs?
The obviously biased Soviet show trial of Chauvin was another example. I am not even a fan of Chauvin but every person deserves a fair trial - especially when they are hated the most. He didn’t get it either.
We live in a time of hysterical mindless lynch mobs facilitated by corrupt corporate media.
Lucky for me, things are still normal in Middle America. Hmm, it is almost like this wave of violent crime is only in certain cities in certain parts of the country.
I am living temporarily in Chicago this summer....on the north side, but still in the city. It couldn't be more peaceful or feel more safe (and I mean that as someone who has lived in several cities and in the rural areas). From my trendy uptown apartment, I see no evil. Therefore, the increase in homicides is a false narrative spewed by the right with an agenda.
Looking forward to the honor of chipping in a bit again for an important trek!
What you did last year was so important, incredible, and only you were doing it(!!!) Thanks again for having allowed us the opportunity to be part of that. Had no idea it would turn out to be so important and revelatory.
It so interesting how some on the left want to downplay the increase in homicide rates. Every damned thing comes down to ideological/political spin. Just in the last couple days we've had AOC again advocating defunding the police. These leftists profess to care about people of color. Yet inner city black and brown people are the primary murder victims. Its anecdotal, but every time I see an interview of ordinary black people in the cities they say they want more police, not less. Most of the defund the police brigade do not have to live with the consequences of their "do good" leftism.
I am from from Montreal, and it is absolutely nothing like Baltimore. Its homicide rate (per 100 000) was 1.05 in 2019, low even for Canada (Toronto: 2.03, [2019] US: 4.96 [2018], Chicago 24.13 [2017]). Unlike in the US, homicides were unchanged in 2020.
And yet there are unmistakable signs that we have started to develop gang culture neighbourhoods and to move along the social decay spiral that leads to Chicago.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/two-shootings-reported-sunday-evening-in-montreal-north
Montreal is lagging behind Toronto that is starting to see Chicago-worthy headlines:
https://torontosun.com/news/crime/birthday-horror-police-leaders-seek-answers-after-bullets-fly-at-tots-party
All it takes is one police shooting of a black criminal and we'd be set for race riots.
Ooooh coming to Philly are ya?
Make sure you get yourself a cheesesteak and some "wudder" jawn.
On top of the surging murder and gun violence rates, we also have gangs of "Mad Max" style ATV and motorcycle gangs overtaking areas of the city at will. The police are forbidden from chasing them(not that they are going to do anything right now anyway) but supposedly city council passed laws to allow them to confiscate them and destroy these vehicles.
There was a effort about 2 weeks ago and they gathered up a ton to destroy, but this only forced the gangs out of the city briefly where they drove all around the 'burbs in protest.
Additionally, I have heard anecdotal tales of 911 not taking calls, not being helpful, or just hanging up on people.
And this summer, as with every summer we have roving gangs of what are euphemistically referred to as "teens" gathering in predetermined places on social media and then running wild, destroying property and harassing citizens.
Have fun! I look forward to reading what you write about it.
I'm in the bad neighborhood high school - been teaching there for 20 years. We had two empty seats with pictures of students who should have walked the stage and graduated. Both were cut down by bullets in the neighborhood.
Our version of the disconnect you speak of in this article: our guest speaker told our student grads that they shouldn't 'ask' for equity or equality ... those days are over. They should 'demand' equity and equality.
From whom they should demand these things was left unsaid. She was also silent on where these things should happen. My community is bereft of any 'R' leadership or YT leadership. Nonetheless, that was the message to grads.
It's highly unfashionable to discuss the daily homicides and the facts. Narrative must be followed...or else.
A funny thing happens when you mention homicide rates. People wanna kill ya, for some reason...
First they created the problems with non stop rioting and bullshit “defund the police” narrative. Then once the violence exploded, they blame the very problem they created on “scary looking guns” and “white supremacy” “domestic terrorism” which gets used by democrats for gun control and expansion of the spying and thought police state.
Anti-trans and anti-Asian violence are epidemics and national emergencies, but dramatic spikes in homicide overall? Stop being hysterical.