Even some of the most virulent foreign policy hawks you’ll ever meet have acknowledged that we are in the throes of the world's “most dangerous moment” since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
A rereading of WW1 suggests that the diplomates in Europe were actually trying to deescalate the situation contrary to conventional historical interpretation; things spiraled out of control and war happened despite. Here we are escalating intentionally hoping that will bring a better outcome. Will we only learn from history after we are left sitting by a fire in front of our cave.
My immediate reaction was, “They can’t be that stu—“
You talked about guardrails. Do we even know what the escalation rules are anymore? Many years ago I took a nuclear disarmament course that involved meeting with SALT negotiators and ACDA directors. Our deterrence strategy was as meticulously detailed and planned out as a chapter of Escoffier. The idea was to automate our response as much as possible so that any incursion of Soviet tanks into, say, West Berlin would launch a juggernaut that ended unstoppably in the annihilation of the Russian population even if they retaliated. The idea was to stop the Russians from starting anything because they knew how it would end.
To our chagrin we learned after the fall of the USSR that they didn’t fully appreciate our beautifully constructed fences but they seemed to work well enough anyway.
Now I have no idea what the roadmap is. A fighter launched from Poland downs a MiG and…then what? Does Russia use battlefield nukes? If so how do we respond? Militarily? With nukes? At what target? With conventional weapons? Doesn’t that end in nukes? Or will they skip the tactical approach and just nuke Warsaw? So then do we nuke Moscow? Or do nothing? Sanction the flow of adoptable puppies? What’s left?
I mean, back in the day we recognized an ICBM takes only half an hour to cross the earth and had plans in place that could be executed at a moment’s notice. If anything happened today, we don’t even understand what the options are, much less have the wisdom to choose among them.
Thanks for staying on top of this, Michael. Lord knows corporate media won't do the job. I'm as concerned as you are that we could blunder into a world war. I can hardly believe I'm saying so. Too many "leaders" are acting as moronicly as those that bumbled their way into WW1.
We have tightly interlinked alliances with minor players in indefensible geographical locations calling for involvement by nuclear powers who will surely be the actual targets of retaliatory escalation. What could possibly go wrong?
The other day I saw someone complaining on Twitter about Jeremy Renner trending as people were pushing for him to portray Zelensky in a movie about Ukraine. "How can you be that shallow?" the person wondered. I'm thinking, "Look around. We think the world is a movie, a video game, and no real consequences will hit home." Here is my problem: we are nearly sixty years out from the Vietnam War, the last "tough" war. We now treat war as a football game and we don't think anyone will die, or if they die, it will be a Hollywood movie where everyone wakes up after the director yells "Cut." That's not good, not good at all.
Incredible that the Ukrainian post mentions the laughable meme hoax that is the "ghost of Kiev". Perhaps they should also refer to the "shark of Kiev" or the "wolf of Kiev" (someone's yellow lab holding a Ukrainian flag in its mouth).
Sometimes the Clown World people go overboard. In this instance they have a case.
FWIW: I kind of think the title of this interview with Richard Medved is "clickbait". I didn't hear Pepe say anything about Putin miscalculating, but I confess that I missed the last 15 minutes. I don't know if there's a transcript.
I certainly recommend folks listen to it. Pepe publishes at "The Cradle" but I find his articles at "The Sakar". I don't think he "takes sides" but just reports what is going on. However, what he reports makes the US look like a conglomeration of fools, something I think I very much agree with.
I'm growing increasingly worried with every new salvo of sanctions and military aid. The social media hype train has long since left the station and it seems that every institution public and private is trying as hard as possible to collapse the Russian economy, isolate its regime, and directly aid its enemies.
A few days ago I might have said this was proportionate and deserved, but it's becoming clearer that most of the people calling most fervently for ever-more punishing actions against Russia don't have any grasp of either (a) the true civilization-ending power of nuclear weapons or (b) the likely chains of events that would lead to their use. They're just caught up in the mob.
I can't remember the last time I was this scared. Nobody is talking about exit strategies to de-escalate the situation or allow the Russian regime to walk things back to some version of the status quo ante. Since that's what's necessary to avert a very painful death for (almost) all of us, I'm starting to think that the whole world has gone mad. Not just Putin or his underlings.
When one says, "Not just Putin or his underlings."
I have to point out that it was the US that caused this current situation. Russia, as a whole and not just Putin, clearly outlined what was going to happen if the US didn't back down. (I can't say NATO because the lackeys there will do whatever the US wants even at the detriment of their own citizens. It has to be the money.)
This Rand White Paper starts with:
"This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. "
Reading that linked Twitter thread made me feel slightly better about nuclear Armageddon.
Social media is full of every one of the top ten classics of war propaganda, each presented as an original thought. War answers a lot of psychological needs. The need to belong, the desire to feel like a victim, the reassurance of cartoonish black/white dichotomies, signaling social status, and on and on. Hormonal writhing, animals in s blood rut, unable to form or follow a single rational thought. Someone needs to take the keys away, fast.
I believe it is called "schadenfreude". But that is suppose to be happiness at another's ill-fate. What is it when you see the end coming and just sigh softly? I guess I'm old enough to not care any longer.
As most who think Putin is "mad" you fail to see the American Oligarchy wants more and that want is the genesis of this conflict.
WRT offering a written agreement that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, that ship has sailed.
Ritter explained months ago (as I recall December) that the Russians were going to destroy the Ukraine military;
(The Saker reports: "The Russian attack began, as predicted, mostly by strikes with standoff weapons. 24 hour hours later the Ukie air force and navy ceased to exist." I know the American Media has not acknowledged this. However as Michael Tracey reports, the Ukrainian Air Force is now accepting donations of MIGs from other NATO members and basing them in Poland. Won't it be "fun" when Russia uses a long range system to kill those planes on the ground.)
And then Russia will go on to destroy Ukraine as an economic entity, something well underway. Russia is claiming "denazification", the West dismisses the Nazis and actually finances them. Gee, anyone recall that Obama gave money to Al Qaeda to attack Assad in Syria?
This is not happening because Putin is a mad man. But because the American Oligarchy wants "more."
A rereading of WW1 suggests that the diplomates in Europe were actually trying to deescalate the situation contrary to conventional historical interpretation; things spiraled out of control and war happened despite. Here we are escalating intentionally hoping that will bring a better outcome. Will we only learn from history after we are left sitting by a fire in front of our cave.
My immediate reaction was, “They can’t be that stu—“
You talked about guardrails. Do we even know what the escalation rules are anymore? Many years ago I took a nuclear disarmament course that involved meeting with SALT negotiators and ACDA directors. Our deterrence strategy was as meticulously detailed and planned out as a chapter of Escoffier. The idea was to automate our response as much as possible so that any incursion of Soviet tanks into, say, West Berlin would launch a juggernaut that ended unstoppably in the annihilation of the Russian population even if they retaliated. The idea was to stop the Russians from starting anything because they knew how it would end.
To our chagrin we learned after the fall of the USSR that they didn’t fully appreciate our beautifully constructed fences but they seemed to work well enough anyway.
Now I have no idea what the roadmap is. A fighter launched from Poland downs a MiG and…then what? Does Russia use battlefield nukes? If so how do we respond? Militarily? With nukes? At what target? With conventional weapons? Doesn’t that end in nukes? Or will they skip the tactical approach and just nuke Warsaw? So then do we nuke Moscow? Or do nothing? Sanction the flow of adoptable puppies? What’s left?
I mean, back in the day we recognized an ICBM takes only half an hour to cross the earth and had plans in place that could be executed at a moment’s notice. If anything happened today, we don’t even understand what the options are, much less have the wisdom to choose among them.
Thanks for staying on top of this, Michael. Lord knows corporate media won't do the job. I'm as concerned as you are that we could blunder into a world war. I can hardly believe I'm saying so. Too many "leaders" are acting as moronicly as those that bumbled their way into WW1.
We have tightly interlinked alliances with minor players in indefensible geographical locations calling for involvement by nuclear powers who will surely be the actual targets of retaliatory escalation. What could possibly go wrong?
Indeed!
The other day I saw someone complaining on Twitter about Jeremy Renner trending as people were pushing for him to portray Zelensky in a movie about Ukraine. "How can you be that shallow?" the person wondered. I'm thinking, "Look around. We think the world is a movie, a video game, and no real consequences will hit home." Here is my problem: we are nearly sixty years out from the Vietnam War, the last "tough" war. We now treat war as a football game and we don't think anyone will die, or if they die, it will be a Hollywood movie where everyone wakes up after the director yells "Cut." That's not good, not good at all.
This may go down in history as the most cringe tweet of all time: https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1497190184206622720
I don't think this asshat was being ironic.
Great article. Never thought about Ukraine fighters potentially using Polish airstrips. Hope this is a “nothing” burger. Good luck on your trip
Incredible that the Ukrainian post mentions the laughable meme hoax that is the "ghost of Kiev". Perhaps they should also refer to the "shark of Kiev" or the "wolf of Kiev" (someone's yellow lab holding a Ukrainian flag in its mouth).
Sometimes the Clown World people go overboard. In this instance they have a case.
Great reporting
Thank you and -- a very refreshing and longer-term view:
Has Putin Miscalculated? | With Pepe Escobar | Part 1 of 2 – March 1, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8syVHWRv_k
FWIW: I kind of think the title of this interview with Richard Medved is "clickbait". I didn't hear Pepe say anything about Putin miscalculating, but I confess that I missed the last 15 minutes. I don't know if there's a transcript.
I certainly recommend folks listen to it. Pepe publishes at "The Cradle" but I find his articles at "The Sakar". I don't think he "takes sides" but just reports what is going on. However, what he reports makes the US look like a conglomeration of fools, something I think I very much agree with.
I'm growing increasingly worried with every new salvo of sanctions and military aid. The social media hype train has long since left the station and it seems that every institution public and private is trying as hard as possible to collapse the Russian economy, isolate its regime, and directly aid its enemies.
A few days ago I might have said this was proportionate and deserved, but it's becoming clearer that most of the people calling most fervently for ever-more punishing actions against Russia don't have any grasp of either (a) the true civilization-ending power of nuclear weapons or (b) the likely chains of events that would lead to their use. They're just caught up in the mob.
I can't remember the last time I was this scared. Nobody is talking about exit strategies to de-escalate the situation or allow the Russian regime to walk things back to some version of the status quo ante. Since that's what's necessary to avert a very painful death for (almost) all of us, I'm starting to think that the whole world has gone mad. Not just Putin or his underlings.
When one says, "Not just Putin or his underlings."
I have to point out that it was the US that caused this current situation. Russia, as a whole and not just Putin, clearly outlined what was going to happen if the US didn't back down. (I can't say NATO because the lackeys there will do whatever the US wants even at the detriment of their own citizens. It has to be the money.)
This Rand White Paper starts with:
"This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. "
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Omg. Everyone should read that. It’s sick.
Reading that linked Twitter thread made me feel slightly better about nuclear Armageddon.
Social media is full of every one of the top ten classics of war propaganda, each presented as an original thought. War answers a lot of psychological needs. The need to belong, the desire to feel like a victim, the reassurance of cartoonish black/white dichotomies, signaling social status, and on and on. Hormonal writhing, animals in s blood rut, unable to form or follow a single rational thought. Someone needs to take the keys away, fast.
"Reading that linked Twitter thread made me feel slightly better about nuclear Armageddon."
Maybe I've been reading far too much of this sort of thing lately, but how did the guardrail thread make you feel better? It made me feel worse.
Meaning I didn’t mind the idea as much.
I believe it is called "schadenfreude". But that is suppose to be happiness at another's ill-fate. What is it when you see the end coming and just sigh softly? I guess I'm old enough to not care any longer.
Schadenruhe, maybe. I’ll have to ask a German.
As most who think Putin is "mad" you fail to see the American Oligarchy wants more and that want is the genesis of this conflict.
WRT offering a written agreement that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, that ship has sailed.
Ritter explained months ago (as I recall December) that the Russians were going to destroy the Ukraine military;
(The Saker reports: "The Russian attack began, as predicted, mostly by strikes with standoff weapons. 24 hour hours later the Ukie air force and navy ceased to exist." I know the American Media has not acknowledged this. However as Michael Tracey reports, the Ukrainian Air Force is now accepting donations of MIGs from other NATO members and basing them in Poland. Won't it be "fun" when Russia uses a long range system to kill those planes on the ground.)
And then Russia will go on to destroy Ukraine as an economic entity, something well underway. Russia is claiming "denazification", the West dismisses the Nazis and actually finances them. Gee, anyone recall that Obama gave money to Al Qaeda to attack Assad in Syria?
This is not happening because Putin is a mad man. But because the American Oligarchy wants "more."
Edit: changed "not" to "now"