My article yesterday on why I continue to think the war in Ukraine is a huge disaster has generated some interesting comments — mostly critical. In general, people who follow or subscribe to me online are passionately convinced that I should abandon my initial intuition, articulated
This war is tragic and I don’t give Putin a pass on the actual invasion. I was very disappointed when it happened. Like most westerners I assumed he was bluffing to get leverage at the negotiation table. I didn’t understand then that the war actually started back in 2014. The Minsk deal was signed and then it was not. Another Lucy, or rather Bojo, pulling the football at the last second. Another NATO moving over the Red Line moment that Putin has experienced many times since 2000. The western empire operates on the geopolitical model of the British Empire, seeking to get control of the Eurasian heartland and its fabulous wealth of natural resources. They already have control of the seas, the Americas, much of Africa. China, Russia, India, Iran, others don’t want to be a cog in a global imperial dystopia. I wish we weren’t here, but the uniparty will always support the unipolar hegemon over any sane statecraft. Putin has seen the beast and can’t unsee it. God help us. Biden and Trump cannot.
You're still ignoring the blatantly obvious "strategy" of the US warmongers: to use the blood and bodies of Ukrainians to weaken and ultimately dismember Russia. How many quotes do you need from Blinken, Austin, Sullivan, "Cookies" Nuland, or the rest? You've also failed to account for the Russian willingness to negotiate, going back to the two Minsk Accords in 2014/15 after the US-sponsored coup, the draft treaties presented to the US and NATO in December 2021, and the negotiations (that were almost complete) with Ukraine in Istanbul in April 2022, which would have ended the war just weeks into the fighting. Ukraine will never see such favorable terms again - and that's entirely the doing of the US and UK, who told Zelensky's crew "no way, you must fight, we'll give you the weaponry." You've also left out the sharp increase of shelling (by the UkroNazis) of Donetsk and Lugansk in the weeks before Russia finally went in.
OF COURSE the Russian goals have become increasingly maximalist over these past two years. After the expenditure of blood and treasure, you think Russia would settle for the status quo ante, when the US has made it clear that it would just take a breath in order to gin up another assault?
Casualties are far higher on the Ukraine side than on the Russian side, disastrous as this is in total. Pro-Western outfits are scouring every Russian source they can find, putting names to the Russian dead, and it's nowhere near what is obvious on the Ukrainian side, where cemeteries are adding entire massive new sections by the week. It is in Ukraine that military authorities are literally grabbing men off the street and sending them into battle with no training. Videos are readily available of this, and increasingly, of civilians pummeling the military commissars to free the man being grabbed. It won't be long before shooting occurs in these encounters. Among those being forcibly conscripted are people with physical and mental disabilities. On the Russian side, thousands of men are volunteering every month.
It's rather useless to say "this is a disaster," without analyzing which side pushed for war, and which side (without its own skin in the game, pun very much intended) has prevented reasonable negotiated solutions while providing billions of dollars of arms and ammunition to the post-coup regimes. Ukraine is now an economic basket case, and its military is on the verge of crumbling. Yet instead of seeking a way out, Zelensky and his US/NATO backers are pushing thousands of reserves toward the meat-grinder of Avdeevka, which will turn out the same as in Bakhmut. Ukraine - and NATO as well, whose industrial base is shriveling, incapable of producing weapons and ammunition at scale - is in fact being demilitarized. The more that happens, the sooner the killing will end.
Russia didn't want this war. At this stage, however, it will finish it. Slow to mount, fast to ride...
Yes, Russia is strengthening through this process. The response to sanctions, combined with the demands of war production, has resulted in tremendous gains in import substitution, in everything from food to manufacturing. If you follow Gilbert Doctorow, who has many decades of on-the-ground experience in post-Soviet Russia, you'll get reports of how society is functioning, what's available in the supermarkets and stores, infrastructure projects, etc. Russia is now the fifth largest economy in the world (after China, the US, India and Japan, ahead of Germany). Anyone still babbling about a "gas station with nukes" is a fool. Unfortunately, too many of those fools occupy high positions in the US and UK governments and thinktanks.
Yes, the Ukraine war is a disaster, but I think it is a disaster in the same way the first and second world wars were disasters. We seem to be living through the start of the third world war, largely because the threat the west poses to Russia really is existential. The threat Russia and China, (let's not forget our other evil nemesis), pose to the west is negligible, unless you think the United States ought to continue its global hegemony for the sake of peace and stability or perhaps for some other reason. As far as peace and stability go, ask the Afghans or the Iraqis or the Libyans or the Palestinians how well that's worked out for them.
Since the end of WWII America has instigated over 200 conflicts around the world which have in turn killed many millions of people. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia pales in comparison, and it too was provoked in large part by the actions of the United States. I have no idea how this will end but I hope it ends with a Russian victory because the likelihood of nuclear holocaust increases exponentially if it doesn't. I'm not a Russia expert but anyone with even a glancing knowledge of Russian culture knows that they keep the memory of their country's immense sacrifice during WWII very fresh. They have not forgotten and will not forget what they are fighting for. Luckily, it's very unlikely they will lose, even if our idiotic political class sends every last dollar we can print to Ukraine.
That does not mean this war isn't tragic and obscene. It is. Ukraine is devastated economically, structurally, environmentally and demographically. The war continues to be a nightmare for them, I'm sure, and as someone whose great grandparents were all born there and who has long dreamed of going there it is heartbreaking. Still, since I have that somewhat tenuous connection to Ukraine I have been paying attention much longer than most Americans. I knew about the civil war, the fascist ideology, the massive corruption and terrible political leadership long before February of 2022. What I didn't know was how much the United States had done to foster all of them.
I know this probably sounds pretty crazy, but my hope is that once this is over what is left of Ukraine will be rebuilt under the auspices of a great power that cares much more about them than the United States ever has and ever could. Ukrainians and Russians have deep ties going back more than a millennium and we Americans were very wrong to spend billions of dollars encouraging such hatred between these two fraternal nations. Is it any wonder we have been called the Great Satan, when we are capable of such truly despicable behavior?
The American strategy - I’ve read - was to split Russia off from Europe and that was achieved on day one of the conflagration. The wisdom of driving her into Chinese arms is dubious, but Europe and Russia are undeniably kaput. Europe is a loser because of energy costs. That’s what I mean by political Gnosticism, the belief that something good comes out of these actions is delusional. In what way was destroying that pipeline to anyone’s advantage: it was wanton and reckless.
The second goal is regime change in Moscow so losing to Putin is not allowable, hence the war goes on - when it needn’t - pointlessly grinding up young Ukrainians and Russians. I think that the prolongation is clearly on the Americans and NATO’s doorstep.
The logical leap might be unexplained but is it really unclear? Russia hasn't been going around the world spreading democracy for the last 75 years without leaving a single democracy in its wake, nor does it have 750 military bases + illegal presence anywhere there's not.
The US orchestrated the coup in 2014 which is the precursor to the conflict, as you say provoking Russia at least a bit.
Russia has at the least a legitimate claim to the territory they've invaded as opposed to Iraq, Syria, Libya or any number of other countries the US has inserted itself in militarily either overtly or subvertly over the decades.
None of this makes me root for Russia but rather to rootb for the US to stop funding Ukraine. That's when this ends.
I'm disappointed. ******* You condemn the Russian Federation for causing "a huge disaster." ******* Has there ever been a war that wasn't a disaster? A valid question would be, "Did the Russian Federation have any reasonable options?" If you truly believe they did, please supply one realistic, practical, effective Russian option. A few reminders: (1) The US & NATO ignored, or summarily dismissed two draft treaties put forward by the Russians, before 2/24/22. They gave no substantive response whatsoever. Not a single counter-proposal. [Correct me, if I'm wrong.] (2) Ukraine and its European partners failed to fulfill their pledges in the Minsk Agreements. Thanks to Merkel & Budanov, we now know that Ukraine, France and Germany cynically used the agreements to build up the Ukrainian military into one of the most powerful armed forces in Europe. (3) The OSCE recorded a dramatic increase in Ukrainian shelling of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts in the days preceding Russia's special military operation. ******* The situation was threatening for the Russian Federation. "Provocative," to say the least. Given 30 years of bad faith US/NATO "diplomacy," Russia had no viable alternative, and, with noticeable reluctance, they took military action. People more qualified than you or I have carefully considered what choice Russian leadership had, other than to capitulate.
Michael makes solid points responding to my comment. I have no possible way to know for sure if a quicker win by Russia would definitely save lives. Maybe I'm naive in my assumption. I'm certainly not above error. I do however feel that my position, even if wrong, comes from a good place. Ive spent decades studying war, geopolitics and related policy and I understand how both Ukraine and Russia are generally going about the fight. It's horrific in every sense of the word. That said, a quick win by either party should lead to, at least in a military theory sense, less overall casualties. And since I believe that Russia has the upper hand, I hope they go for a quick finish. Again, this is just my humble opinion and I may certainly be wrong. But it is my opinion nonetheless and I feel it is at least above and beyond the standard schmuck point of view.
We need an IMMEDIATE cease fire followed by negotiations. I have high hopes Trump can wrestle the participants to the table. Jaw-Jaw is better than War-War.
" Instead, he’s making a political calculation that voting NAY will have certain political benefits, without impeding ultimate passage of the bill, which he steadfastly supports. Senate Republicans believe it’s in their interest this election cycle to emphasize that they’re unflinchingly prioritizing immigration policy above all else.."
Template for everything Congress does.. head fake trash talk then f**k you voters lobbyists rule!
If one is winning the attritional war, then it's not exactly stupid to pursue it to the full, rather than throw your own soldiers away on costly offensives.
Also, I'm not sure how a Eurasian orientation for Russia or a multipolar world hurts any given taxpaying American more than the global American Empire run out of DC already does. I suspect a renunciation of global hegemonic designs would lead to improvements at home, rather.
This war is tragic and I don’t give Putin a pass on the actual invasion. I was very disappointed when it happened. Like most westerners I assumed he was bluffing to get leverage at the negotiation table. I didn’t understand then that the war actually started back in 2014. The Minsk deal was signed and then it was not. Another Lucy, or rather Bojo, pulling the football at the last second. Another NATO moving over the Red Line moment that Putin has experienced many times since 2000. The western empire operates on the geopolitical model of the British Empire, seeking to get control of the Eurasian heartland and its fabulous wealth of natural resources. They already have control of the seas, the Americas, much of Africa. China, Russia, India, Iran, others don’t want to be a cog in a global imperial dystopia. I wish we weren’t here, but the uniparty will always support the unipolar hegemon over any sane statecraft. Putin has seen the beast and can’t unsee it. God help us. Biden and Trump cannot.
You're still ignoring the blatantly obvious "strategy" of the US warmongers: to use the blood and bodies of Ukrainians to weaken and ultimately dismember Russia. How many quotes do you need from Blinken, Austin, Sullivan, "Cookies" Nuland, or the rest? You've also failed to account for the Russian willingness to negotiate, going back to the two Minsk Accords in 2014/15 after the US-sponsored coup, the draft treaties presented to the US and NATO in December 2021, and the negotiations (that were almost complete) with Ukraine in Istanbul in April 2022, which would have ended the war just weeks into the fighting. Ukraine will never see such favorable terms again - and that's entirely the doing of the US and UK, who told Zelensky's crew "no way, you must fight, we'll give you the weaponry." You've also left out the sharp increase of shelling (by the UkroNazis) of Donetsk and Lugansk in the weeks before Russia finally went in.
OF COURSE the Russian goals have become increasingly maximalist over these past two years. After the expenditure of blood and treasure, you think Russia would settle for the status quo ante, when the US has made it clear that it would just take a breath in order to gin up another assault?
Casualties are far higher on the Ukraine side than on the Russian side, disastrous as this is in total. Pro-Western outfits are scouring every Russian source they can find, putting names to the Russian dead, and it's nowhere near what is obvious on the Ukrainian side, where cemeteries are adding entire massive new sections by the week. It is in Ukraine that military authorities are literally grabbing men off the street and sending them into battle with no training. Videos are readily available of this, and increasingly, of civilians pummeling the military commissars to free the man being grabbed. It won't be long before shooting occurs in these encounters. Among those being forcibly conscripted are people with physical and mental disabilities. On the Russian side, thousands of men are volunteering every month.
It's rather useless to say "this is a disaster," without analyzing which side pushed for war, and which side (without its own skin in the game, pun very much intended) has prevented reasonable negotiated solutions while providing billions of dollars of arms and ammunition to the post-coup regimes. Ukraine is now an economic basket case, and its military is on the verge of crumbling. Yet instead of seeking a way out, Zelensky and his US/NATO backers are pushing thousands of reserves toward the meat-grinder of Avdeevka, which will turn out the same as in Bakhmut. Ukraine - and NATO as well, whose industrial base is shriveling, incapable of producing weapons and ammunition at scale - is in fact being demilitarized. The more that happens, the sooner the killing will end.
Russia didn't want this war. At this stage, however, it will finish it. Slow to mount, fast to ride...
Yes, Russia is strengthening through this process. The response to sanctions, combined with the demands of war production, has resulted in tremendous gains in import substitution, in everything from food to manufacturing. If you follow Gilbert Doctorow, who has many decades of on-the-ground experience in post-Soviet Russia, you'll get reports of how society is functioning, what's available in the supermarkets and stores, infrastructure projects, etc. Russia is now the fifth largest economy in the world (after China, the US, India and Japan, ahead of Germany). Anyone still babbling about a "gas station with nukes" is a fool. Unfortunately, too many of those fools occupy high positions in the US and UK governments and thinktanks.
Yes, the Ukraine war is a disaster, but I think it is a disaster in the same way the first and second world wars were disasters. We seem to be living through the start of the third world war, largely because the threat the west poses to Russia really is existential. The threat Russia and China, (let's not forget our other evil nemesis), pose to the west is negligible, unless you think the United States ought to continue its global hegemony for the sake of peace and stability or perhaps for some other reason. As far as peace and stability go, ask the Afghans or the Iraqis or the Libyans or the Palestinians how well that's worked out for them.
Since the end of WWII America has instigated over 200 conflicts around the world which have in turn killed many millions of people. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia pales in comparison, and it too was provoked in large part by the actions of the United States. I have no idea how this will end but I hope it ends with a Russian victory because the likelihood of nuclear holocaust increases exponentially if it doesn't. I'm not a Russia expert but anyone with even a glancing knowledge of Russian culture knows that they keep the memory of their country's immense sacrifice during WWII very fresh. They have not forgotten and will not forget what they are fighting for. Luckily, it's very unlikely they will lose, even if our idiotic political class sends every last dollar we can print to Ukraine.
That does not mean this war isn't tragic and obscene. It is. Ukraine is devastated economically, structurally, environmentally and demographically. The war continues to be a nightmare for them, I'm sure, and as someone whose great grandparents were all born there and who has long dreamed of going there it is heartbreaking. Still, since I have that somewhat tenuous connection to Ukraine I have been paying attention much longer than most Americans. I knew about the civil war, the fascist ideology, the massive corruption and terrible political leadership long before February of 2022. What I didn't know was how much the United States had done to foster all of them.
I know this probably sounds pretty crazy, but my hope is that once this is over what is left of Ukraine will be rebuilt under the auspices of a great power that cares much more about them than the United States ever has and ever could. Ukrainians and Russians have deep ties going back more than a millennium and we Americans were very wrong to spend billions of dollars encouraging such hatred between these two fraternal nations. Is it any wonder we have been called the Great Satan, when we are capable of such truly despicable behavior?
Good argumentation.
The American strategy - I’ve read - was to split Russia off from Europe and that was achieved on day one of the conflagration. The wisdom of driving her into Chinese arms is dubious, but Europe and Russia are undeniably kaput. Europe is a loser because of energy costs. That’s what I mean by political Gnosticism, the belief that something good comes out of these actions is delusional. In what way was destroying that pipeline to anyone’s advantage: it was wanton and reckless.
The second goal is regime change in Moscow so losing to Putin is not allowable, hence the war goes on - when it needn’t - pointlessly grinding up young Ukrainians and Russians. I think that the prolongation is clearly on the Americans and NATO’s doorstep.
Sorry to be such a smarty-pants.
America is a war machine.
Iran is next.
The logical leap might be unexplained but is it really unclear? Russia hasn't been going around the world spreading democracy for the last 75 years without leaving a single democracy in its wake, nor does it have 750 military bases + illegal presence anywhere there's not.
The US orchestrated the coup in 2014 which is the precursor to the conflict, as you say provoking Russia at least a bit.
Russia has at the least a legitimate claim to the territory they've invaded as opposed to Iraq, Syria, Libya or any number of other countries the US has inserted itself in militarily either overtly or subvertly over the decades.
None of this makes me root for Russia but rather to rootb for the US to stop funding Ukraine. That's when this ends.
I'm disappointed. ******* You condemn the Russian Federation for causing "a huge disaster." ******* Has there ever been a war that wasn't a disaster? A valid question would be, "Did the Russian Federation have any reasonable options?" If you truly believe they did, please supply one realistic, practical, effective Russian option. A few reminders: (1) The US & NATO ignored, or summarily dismissed two draft treaties put forward by the Russians, before 2/24/22. They gave no substantive response whatsoever. Not a single counter-proposal. [Correct me, if I'm wrong.] (2) Ukraine and its European partners failed to fulfill their pledges in the Minsk Agreements. Thanks to Merkel & Budanov, we now know that Ukraine, France and Germany cynically used the agreements to build up the Ukrainian military into one of the most powerful armed forces in Europe. (3) The OSCE recorded a dramatic increase in Ukrainian shelling of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts in the days preceding Russia's special military operation. ******* The situation was threatening for the Russian Federation. "Provocative," to say the least. Given 30 years of bad faith US/NATO "diplomacy," Russia had no viable alternative, and, with noticeable reluctance, they took military action. People more qualified than you or I have carefully considered what choice Russian leadership had, other than to capitulate.
Oliver Boyd-Barrett. MAY 24, 2023: https://oliverboydbarrett.substack.com/p/russian-options **** Ray McGovern. May 22, 2023: https://raymcgovern.com/2023/05/22/did-putin-have-other-options-on-ukraine/ ******* Let me be clear -- I respect your reporting. It's diligent and honest. But I think your analysis on this critical issue is seriously flawed. I think your reasoning is sincere, but faulty. I hope you'll re-think your judgment of Russia, and I hope you'll continue to do first-rate gathering of news and information.
Michael makes solid points responding to my comment. I have no possible way to know for sure if a quicker win by Russia would definitely save lives. Maybe I'm naive in my assumption. I'm certainly not above error. I do however feel that my position, even if wrong, comes from a good place. Ive spent decades studying war, geopolitics and related policy and I understand how both Ukraine and Russia are generally going about the fight. It's horrific in every sense of the word. That said, a quick win by either party should lead to, at least in a military theory sense, less overall casualties. And since I believe that Russia has the upper hand, I hope they go for a quick finish. Again, this is just my humble opinion and I may certainly be wrong. But it is my opinion nonetheless and I feel it is at least above and beyond the standard schmuck point of view.
We need an IMMEDIATE cease fire followed by negotiations. I have high hopes Trump can wrestle the participants to the table. Jaw-Jaw is better than War-War.
" Instead, he’s making a political calculation that voting NAY will have certain political benefits, without impeding ultimate passage of the bill, which he steadfastly supports. Senate Republicans believe it’s in their interest this election cycle to emphasize that they’re unflinchingly prioritizing immigration policy above all else.."
Template for everything Congress does.. head fake trash talk then f**k you voters lobbyists rule!
If one is winning the attritional war, then it's not exactly stupid to pursue it to the full, rather than throw your own soldiers away on costly offensives.
Also, I'm not sure how a Eurasian orientation for Russia or a multipolar world hurts any given taxpaying American more than the global American Empire run out of DC already does. I suspect a renunciation of global hegemonic designs would lead to improvements at home, rather.
Thanks Mike. Great article