2024 is the first presidential election cycle since 2008 that I have not had a particularly strong intuition for who the general election winner would be. In every cycle between 2008 and 2020, my basic intuition was proven correct. This could be controversial
I am skeptical of the claim the 2020 election was not rigged, not necessarily through vote counting, but through the control of the narrative on Social Medias and the “50 Intelligence Officers” CIA OP. I can’t prove it was rigged but, the opposite argument cannot be made with certainty either. If many major institutions are corrupted , DOJ, CIA, CDC the Press and Tech, what makes anyone certain that voting is not similarly disabled.
Anyway, you did a very good job perusing the tea leaves but I remain unconvinced that either Biden nor Trump will be on the final ballot.
I just subscribed so it’s good to read WELL WRITTEN AND THOUGHT-OUT opinions I disagree with.
The two things that could alter the 2024 result: will Biden and the Dems be able to use the same electoral shenanigans that helped them win in 2024 and what effect will RFK, Jr. have on the race? So far, the MSM alternates between ignoring his candidacy and demonizing him. They seem to think that RFK is more of a threat to Biden than to Trump but I am not so sure. He is running as the anti-establishment candidate, which was Trump's winning strategy in 2016.
Good stuff.
Excellent data. Cheers, Michael.
I am skeptical of the claim the 2020 election was not rigged, not necessarily through vote counting, but through the control of the narrative on Social Medias and the “50 Intelligence Officers” CIA OP. I can’t prove it was rigged but, the opposite argument cannot be made with certainty either. If many major institutions are corrupted , DOJ, CIA, CDC the Press and Tech, what makes anyone certain that voting is not similarly disabled.
Anyway, you did a very good job perusing the tea leaves but I remain unconvinced that either Biden nor Trump will be on the final ballot.
I just subscribed so it’s good to read WELL WRITTEN AND THOUGHT-OUT opinions I disagree with.
Thanks!
The two things that could alter the 2024 result: will Biden and the Dems be able to use the same electoral shenanigans that helped them win in 2024 and what effect will RFK, Jr. have on the race? So far, the MSM alternates between ignoring his candidacy and demonizing him. They seem to think that RFK is more of a threat to Biden than to Trump but I am not so sure. He is running as the anti-establishment candidate, which was Trump's winning strategy in 2016.
Boggles my mind it's not obvious he's too demented for POTUS now much less 4 more years!
The Obamas have been running the country and the wars.
It will be a predictable and natural evolution to see Michelle Obama replace Biden on the ballots after the DNC.
Cheers!
Jenny Hatch
26% decline could just represent the fact that the other Democratic candidates are really not a threat and voters stayed home.