Maybe this isn’t the Afghanistan-related content that my largely-American audience is most eager to consume, but having been in London for the past two weeks and followed the coverage of the Afghanistan withdrawal here, I can’t help but be grimly fascinated by the steady stream of
I've had my fill with the "elites" on both sides of the Atlantic.
In many ways the UK's hegemonic decline since WWII is perfectly understandable. It is a small island nation that once boasted a colonial empire upon which the "sun never set." Although it's economic strength is still impressive vis-a-vis it's size and population, it's days as a dominant world power are over as unsustainable.
I can't disagree that the US hegemony is in decline. In our case it's not because we don't have the economic and military might. We are a continental power with the largest economy in the world. Our downward arc is self inflicted. We have "elites" who constantly make idiotic decisions. Since WWII nearly every war or conflict we have entered into has ended with either a lose, or a draw (as in the case of Korea). Our adventures in southeast Asia, and especially Iraq/Afghanistan, have been monumental failures. Our decline is the fault of politicians, the "intelligence" community, and the military. It's also the fault of public being duped over and over again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Instead of using our hegemony constructively, we have squandered it. War, for wars sake, and to line the pockets of the defense industries, does nothing to advance our nation.
The American political elite have been captured by military economic interests.
Your economy is based on war and so you go to war; god like, you rain hellfire (missiles) down upon your enemy.
Your elite pursue war for their own personal economic gain and leave the American homeland an underfunded shambles. Have you noticed that your cities are shit holes?
The PAX americana is exhausted , bankrupt, a menace .
Our downward arc is entirely relative, not absolute. We enjoy the most dynamic economy in the world and the highest standard of living of any major economy (meaning not including tax haven city states and petro states). We have a shockingly advanced (and expensive) military that controls whatever ground it chooses to stand on and that suffers "defeats" only at the hands of those it chooses voluntarily not to exterminate. We shouldn't confuse disinterest for impotence.
On a relative basis, our hegemonic power is waning versus countries - like China - that started from such a low base relative to the size of their potential economy that they had only one direction to go. Many Americans exaggerate this decline because they are overly familiar with our problems and insufficiently familiar with every other country's problems.
I'll start seriously worrying about American decline when we start seeing actual emigration by working age citizens. It's virtually non-existent. About 100,000 Western Europeans immigrate to the U.S. every year - mostly because we have a more dynamic economy. About 70,000 Chinese immigrate to the U.S. every year for reasons that are a little more inscrutable (sorry, that was terrible), but which I would guess are mostly economic. We don't count the number of Americans that simply become residents abroad, but we do count those who renounce their citizenship and given our double taxation scheme it is safe to say that apart from retirees and students, people intending to permanently live in another country are going to renounce sooner rather than later. In 2016, an unprecedented 5,400 Americans renounced.
Can't disagree with any of your points (although I don't have much knowledge concerning issues facing Americans living abroad). My frustration really is with our completely self inflicted wounds. We could experience much greater prosperity if our elites made more decisions based upon the common welfare, and less upon lining the pockets of Ratheon and the gang.
Your focus on which way economic migration flows is a great bellwether. Through most of American history there has been very little out migration versus inward. The reasons have varied: religeous tolerance, freedom and liberty, and overwhelmingly for more than 100 years, economic opportunity.
Yeah, I get it. H.L. Mencken said that the "aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary" and, of course, not much has changed.
But realize that in the last 3 months China has decreed an entire sector of its exchange listed companies to be involuntary non-profits, started demanding "voluntary" payments from tech companies that resemble tithes and seemingly gagged its most famous businessman, all in a way startlingly similar to Mohammed Bin Salmon's Prison by Ritz Carlton(TM) appeal to national solidarity. Australia has shuttered its economy to achieve something that no realistic person, including its own politicians, believes is achievable. And Europe has been busy negotiating a minimum corporate tax in an effort to strangle the one bit of competitive advantage they have had over America for the last 25 years. So, you know, there's a really good chance that being an American will be a respectably good choice for the next 100 years too.
Given that America's name was rightfully dragged through the mud for the past 2 decades in Europe, I was totally unprepared for their widespread shock and outrage at our *ending* a war.
That’s a very interesting point. Why are people upset by the ending of the war? Michael Tracy mansion so he finds the right wing position largely unintelligible.
"UK politicians and pundits lash out at Biden like he’s their own de facto chief executive or something"
The British don't vote in American elections but they can bribe the political and business elites just as good as the chinese and the saudis. Bribes (I mean "campaign contributions" or whatever) have more influence than votes. Its called "globalism". The American Empire replaced the British Empire and so US elites get the bribes, not UK elites. The products of Raytheon and Lougheed Martin can be directed at whatever enemy, for the right price. The Chinese took it to the next level, they wanted America's factories and IP and they got them, thanks to strategic bribes to corporate and political elites. Wake up America...your ivy league elites are corrupt as hell.
There is actually an interesting discussion between Gore Vidal and a UK counterpart on the BBC from like the late 90s or something where he mentions that. Something to the effect of (highly paraphrased) "The American people pay a massive amount in terms of funds, reputation, etc... to help maintain a massive hegemonic empire ... but almost none of them get anything of any value out of it, its just a burden to them."
I respect your commentary, but you really should give credit where it's due, to journalists like Pepe Escobar. In fact, you should have corrected the guy who interviewed you on the recent podcast and stated that you were one of the last journalists. There are still legendary if marginalized on-the-ground journalists (like Escobar) in war-torn areas, offering analysis based on really deep experience and knowledge. Sometimes I wonder if you and GG are just twitter punditry, but acceptable since I agree with you.
One of best commentaries I've read on this subject. Thank you.
My own thoughts: The US eventually did accomplish its at least slightly reasonable objective when it killed Bin Laden. Then it inexplicably set the objective of turning Afghanistan into a Western-sympathizing state and couldn't accomplish that. True.
But that couldn't have been achieved if the US had somehow been 10 or 100 times as powerful. It's as if I set a personal fitness goal of being able to lift my house off its foundations. Not gonna happen. But does this say anything about whether I can run a decent 10K or drop and do 50 pushups. No.
The pullout could have been executed better, but the fact of leaving says nothing about the US ability to project power. Maybe that ability is, indeed, diminishing. Maybe it isn't. Maybe it's even growing. Much more indicative are war games against China and Iran anticipating the use of major modern weapons. Some of these, I've read, do not produce encouraging outcomes for the US, something that probably deserves more media attention.
Finally, I'm not quite getting why our allies in Afghanistan are so upset with the US. They've known for months -- as we all have -- that Biden intended to pull out, though they may have been left out of the details. But these are military forces. Aren't they at the very least capable of taking care of themselves? I suspect I'm missing some essential elements here, but in the abstract (and as you suggest) their very complaints indicate an embarrassing dependence on the US.
Just in -- really unbelievable (GOP is trash, like DNC)
Conservative FTC Commissioners are PROTECTING Facebook from any break-up... !!??!! This is truly outrageous -- almost unimaginable
Lina Khan Leads the Government's New Attempt to Break Up Facebook - by Matt Stoller - BIG by Matt Stoller (substack.com)
Republican Commissioners are PROTECTING Facebook from break-up !!??
The vote among the five commissioners at the Federal Trade Commission was 3-2, as both Republican Commissioners, Noah Phillips and Christine Wilson, voted against bringing it.
….”One major risk here is the Republican Party establishment. For a few years, populists made headway there; conservative legal titan Clarence Thomas came out against Google’s power, and Trump himself was able to bring antitrust suits against Google and Facebook (even though he was very good for big tech). But now, there’s a counter-attack, and libertarians like Jim Jordan, if they gain more power, will try to destroy the FTC as an institution in order to protect dominant firms, using culture war arguments as a shield. That battle, which is taking place on the right, continues.
In a sane world, the remarkable allegations in these complaints would be enough to have Zuckerberg put in jail and Facebook restructured. Instead, a fearful judge forced the FTC to do a bunch more homework before even being able to bring Facebook to trial. We do not have a coherent state that can govern in any meaningful way, and not just in America, but across the West. By contrast, the Chinese government made a decision to restructure its tech sector, and within two years, it has basically done that. That’s not because the Chinese government is authoritarian, but because Chinese leaders understand, as Americans and Europeans used to, what it means to have a state.”
These same 'elites' are, through themselves and through the Corporate Media, explaining to us that we need to wear masks, get vaccinated (boosters on the way, and Pfizer has a twice a day pill in the pipeline to offset debilitating effects!), and that white rage / nationalism as well as rising temperatures are the most pressing threats to the Republic.
Why anyone listens to these people is a mystery. as Karl Denninger notes, 'we are on our own'.
I've had my fill with the "elites" on both sides of the Atlantic.
In many ways the UK's hegemonic decline since WWII is perfectly understandable. It is a small island nation that once boasted a colonial empire upon which the "sun never set." Although it's economic strength is still impressive vis-a-vis it's size and population, it's days as a dominant world power are over as unsustainable.
I can't disagree that the US hegemony is in decline. In our case it's not because we don't have the economic and military might. We are a continental power with the largest economy in the world. Our downward arc is self inflicted. We have "elites" who constantly make idiotic decisions. Since WWII nearly every war or conflict we have entered into has ended with either a lose, or a draw (as in the case of Korea). Our adventures in southeast Asia, and especially Iraq/Afghanistan, have been monumental failures. Our decline is the fault of politicians, the "intelligence" community, and the military. It's also the fault of public being duped over and over again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Instead of using our hegemony constructively, we have squandered it. War, for wars sake, and to line the pockets of the defense industries, does nothing to advance our nation.
Bravo Jeff.
The American political elite have been captured by military economic interests.
Your economy is based on war and so you go to war; god like, you rain hellfire (missiles) down upon your enemy.
Your elite pursue war for their own personal economic gain and leave the American homeland an underfunded shambles. Have you noticed that your cities are shit holes?
The PAX americana is exhausted , bankrupt, a menace .
Our downward arc is entirely relative, not absolute. We enjoy the most dynamic economy in the world and the highest standard of living of any major economy (meaning not including tax haven city states and petro states). We have a shockingly advanced (and expensive) military that controls whatever ground it chooses to stand on and that suffers "defeats" only at the hands of those it chooses voluntarily not to exterminate. We shouldn't confuse disinterest for impotence.
On a relative basis, our hegemonic power is waning versus countries - like China - that started from such a low base relative to the size of their potential economy that they had only one direction to go. Many Americans exaggerate this decline because they are overly familiar with our problems and insufficiently familiar with every other country's problems.
I'll start seriously worrying about American decline when we start seeing actual emigration by working age citizens. It's virtually non-existent. About 100,000 Western Europeans immigrate to the U.S. every year - mostly because we have a more dynamic economy. About 70,000 Chinese immigrate to the U.S. every year for reasons that are a little more inscrutable (sorry, that was terrible), but which I would guess are mostly economic. We don't count the number of Americans that simply become residents abroad, but we do count those who renounce their citizenship and given our double taxation scheme it is safe to say that apart from retirees and students, people intending to permanently live in another country are going to renounce sooner rather than later. In 2016, an unprecedented 5,400 Americans renounced.
Can't disagree with any of your points (although I don't have much knowledge concerning issues facing Americans living abroad). My frustration really is with our completely self inflicted wounds. We could experience much greater prosperity if our elites made more decisions based upon the common welfare, and less upon lining the pockets of Ratheon and the gang.
Your focus on which way economic migration flows is a great bellwether. Through most of American history there has been very little out migration versus inward. The reasons have varied: religeous tolerance, freedom and liberty, and overwhelmingly for more than 100 years, economic opportunity.
Yeah, I get it. H.L. Mencken said that the "aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary" and, of course, not much has changed.
But realize that in the last 3 months China has decreed an entire sector of its exchange listed companies to be involuntary non-profits, started demanding "voluntary" payments from tech companies that resemble tithes and seemingly gagged its most famous businessman, all in a way startlingly similar to Mohammed Bin Salmon's Prison by Ritz Carlton(TM) appeal to national solidarity. Australia has shuttered its economy to achieve something that no realistic person, including its own politicians, believes is achievable. And Europe has been busy negotiating a minimum corporate tax in an effort to strangle the one bit of competitive advantage they have had over America for the last 25 years. So, you know, there's a really good chance that being an American will be a respectably good choice for the next 100 years too.
If there is going to be a ruling "empire" its better to be American than something else. God help us if China were to take over.
I think you meant: "fool me once, shame on you ... fool me twice ........ cain't fool me again!!"
Actually, it's "won't get fooled again". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q
Does anyone here think that someone(s) high up, a general etc as example, will get fired over all this?
Not a single big-time banker went to jail or prosecuted or tried over the 2008 financial crisis, which is still being deeply felt.
Given that America's name was rightfully dragged through the mud for the past 2 decades in Europe, I was totally unprepared for their widespread shock and outrage at our *ending* a war.
That’s a very interesting point. Why are people upset by the ending of the war? Michael Tracy mansion so he finds the right wing position largely unintelligible.
Mentioned he finds the right wingers position unintelligible
"UK politicians and pundits lash out at Biden like he’s their own de facto chief executive or something"
The British don't vote in American elections but they can bribe the political and business elites just as good as the chinese and the saudis. Bribes (I mean "campaign contributions" or whatever) have more influence than votes. Its called "globalism". The American Empire replaced the British Empire and so US elites get the bribes, not UK elites. The products of Raytheon and Lougheed Martin can be directed at whatever enemy, for the right price. The Chinese took it to the next level, they wanted America's factories and IP and they got them, thanks to strategic bribes to corporate and political elites. Wake up America...your ivy league elites are corrupt as hell.
If what the US has had for the last 30 odd years is “hegemony”, then it’s not as good as it’s sounds for most people living here in the US.
There is actually an interesting discussion between Gore Vidal and a UK counterpart on the BBC from like the late 90s or something where he mentions that. Something to the effect of (highly paraphrased) "The American people pay a massive amount in terms of funds, reputation, etc... to help maintain a massive hegemonic empire ... but almost none of them get anything of any value out of it, its just a burden to them."
I respect your commentary, but you really should give credit where it's due, to journalists like Pepe Escobar. In fact, you should have corrected the guy who interviewed you on the recent podcast and stated that you were one of the last journalists. There are still legendary if marginalized on-the-ground journalists (like Escobar) in war-torn areas, offering analysis based on really deep experience and knowledge. Sometimes I wonder if you and GG are just twitter punditry, but acceptable since I agree with you.
One of best commentaries I've read on this subject. Thank you.
My own thoughts: The US eventually did accomplish its at least slightly reasonable objective when it killed Bin Laden. Then it inexplicably set the objective of turning Afghanistan into a Western-sympathizing state and couldn't accomplish that. True.
But that couldn't have been achieved if the US had somehow been 10 or 100 times as powerful. It's as if I set a personal fitness goal of being able to lift my house off its foundations. Not gonna happen. But does this say anything about whether I can run a decent 10K or drop and do 50 pushups. No.
The pullout could have been executed better, but the fact of leaving says nothing about the US ability to project power. Maybe that ability is, indeed, diminishing. Maybe it isn't. Maybe it's even growing. Much more indicative are war games against China and Iran anticipating the use of major modern weapons. Some of these, I've read, do not produce encouraging outcomes for the US, something that probably deserves more media attention.
Finally, I'm not quite getting why our allies in Afghanistan are so upset with the US. They've known for months -- as we all have -- that Biden intended to pull out, though they may have been left out of the details. But these are military forces. Aren't they at the very least capable of taking care of themselves? I suspect I'm missing some essential elements here, but in the abstract (and as you suggest) their very complaints indicate an embarrassing dependence on the US.
Something missing here.
The UK had to deal with WWII which is what sealed it's fall.
Will there be a WWIII?
China surely seems to be winning, spending on infrastructure and keeping the plebes happy because they no longer live in poverty.
Just in -- really unbelievable (GOP is trash, like DNC)
Conservative FTC Commissioners are PROTECTING Facebook from any break-up... !!??!! This is truly outrageous -- almost unimaginable
Lina Khan Leads the Government's New Attempt to Break Up Facebook - by Matt Stoller - BIG by Matt Stoller (substack.com)
Republican Commissioners are PROTECTING Facebook from break-up !!??
The vote among the five commissioners at the Federal Trade Commission was 3-2, as both Republican Commissioners, Noah Phillips and Christine Wilson, voted against bringing it.
….”One major risk here is the Republican Party establishment. For a few years, populists made headway there; conservative legal titan Clarence Thomas came out against Google’s power, and Trump himself was able to bring antitrust suits against Google and Facebook (even though he was very good for big tech). But now, there’s a counter-attack, and libertarians like Jim Jordan, if they gain more power, will try to destroy the FTC as an institution in order to protect dominant firms, using culture war arguments as a shield. That battle, which is taking place on the right, continues.
In a sane world, the remarkable allegations in these complaints would be enough to have Zuckerberg put in jail and Facebook restructured. Instead, a fearful judge forced the FTC to do a bunch more homework before even being able to bring Facebook to trial. We do not have a coherent state that can govern in any meaningful way, and not just in America, but across the West. By contrast, the Chinese government made a decision to restructure its tech sector, and within two years, it has basically done that. That’s not because the Chinese government is authoritarian, but because Chinese leaders understand, as Americans and Europeans used to, what it means to have a state.”
These same 'elites' are, through themselves and through the Corporate Media, explaining to us that we need to wear masks, get vaccinated (boosters on the way, and Pfizer has a twice a day pill in the pipeline to offset debilitating effects!), and that white rage / nationalism as well as rising temperatures are the most pressing threats to the Republic.
Why anyone listens to these people is a mystery. as Karl Denninger notes, 'we are on our own'.
I recommend MTracey and TRussell's talk about this on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF_zBrKibQk
Here is a very small, real world example of these people's decisions, in my line of work: https://education-ny.blogspot.com/2021/09/bug19-strikes-again-ruins-school-bus.html
Tucker Carlson is a heretic. He cuts across all the orthodoxies, even criticize the Republicans